Thursday, 5 January 2012

2012 GIH Message

Dear valued clients and well wishers of GIH,

It’s that time of the year when we reflect the past and greet the New Year with the anticipation of a prosperous year ahead.  

Whilst we need to take lessons with what has transpired behind us during the course of last year, we cannot or for that matter could not have changed the event and proceedings that have taken place. What we could only do now is to thank Allah (SWT) for helping and guiding us through the past year, a year which has endured a lot of violence and economic issues which have hit every corner of the earth.

A number of challenges and opportunities lie ahead when looking at the year ahead of us and we need to identify key trends and other signs to the future. The growing threat to the global economy which has been a thorn in our flesh since 2008, the political changes taking place within the Middle East and the shift of economic powerhouse from West to East.

Here are some of the key challenges we see could shape 2012 and beyond:

·        A new global financial crisis could be in the making and unleash its fury as early as 2012, a year when bond rollovers in the US, Asia and Europe worth a combined $7.6 trillion are due.

·        The Euro zone sovereign debt crisis has entered a critical new phase with France’s prized AAA rating nder threat of being downgraded by Fitch and the spectre of more sovereign downgrades looking imminent.

·         Although some green shoots of economic recovery has taken place in 2011 in the US, the same has yet to e transpired into sustainable trees. Should the Euro zone crisis keep dragging and a uniform solution to the Euro could not be put forth, it could impact the US and the global economy as a whole.

·      In the Middle East, apart from the Arab spring which is still continuing in parts of Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen could spread further into Saudi Arabia. Should the demand for oil slows down and we see a substantial impact to oil prices, then some of the reforms announced by the Saudi government could not materialize and could prove costly to the Saudi regime.

·      Prospects of China and India economies growing has been fading with growth estimates for 2012 been revised downwards. It would be interesting to see how China will try and spur growth inside its own country.

While the above challenges are pertinent and to be taken note of, we don’t see “all gloom and doom” for 2012. We believe with every challenge lies opportunities and we are hopeful that the 7 billion plus global citizens will continue to consume and proceed with their livelihoods.

GIH Focus in 2012:

As was the case in 2011, GIH would continue to focus on Sri Lanka and tap into the retail, construction, hospitality, logistics and consumable based opportunities which we feel are key growth areas expected in line with the projected GDP 8.0% for 2012. We at GIH are confident that there would be plenty of opportunities within the sectors outlines above to invest during the year.

We hope and pray that Allah (SWT) will bless the year ahead for all of us and give us good health, strengthen our belief and commitments towards the betterment of mankind.

With Warm Wishes,

Team GIH

DISCLAIMER - This document is issued by GIH - Sri Lanka, solely for the purpose of information to its staff and customers. All efforts have been taken to ensure facts and figures presented herein are as accurate and error free as possible. Data subject to change without notice. All Rights Reserved. GIH - Sri Lanka. 2012.

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